|
Site
maintained by Dr Craig Dalton, Public Health Physician and Conjoint
Senior Lecturer, School of Medical Practice and Population Health, The
University of Newcastle, NSW, Australia. Contact: email@retailtobacco.net
This site
provides a guide to the estimation of human cost of retail tobacco sales
and background information on which my article "Daffodils
or ciggies, take your pick" published in the Sydney Morning
Herald on August 17, 2004 was based. (click here for
media generated by article)
Check the latest publication
in the Sydney Morning Herald August 23rd 2007 here.
New
$500 Youtube challenge - New
$500 prize to the most popular
(i.e. most viewed) video uploaded to Youtube
in the month leading up to Daffodil Day 2008 that highlights the challenge
of big tobacco retailers positioning themselves as cancer prevention
fundraisers.
Want a reminder about the
YouTube challenge next year? Or want to be involved in retailtobacco
issues? Join the email
list
What this site is about
While tobacco manufacturers
are considered corporate pariahs, big tobacco retailers seem to operate
behind a smokescreen of respectability. This smokescreen is so effective
that the Cancer Council
can partner with Coles Supermarkets
which will sell over a million cigarettes on Daffodil
Day - a cancer charity fundraising event that has special meaning
and brings hope to cancer sufferers and their families. Understanding
the human cost of tobacco sales by individual retailers can help government,
charities, the community, and even tobacco retailers to recognise the
impact of these sales. Hopefully, greater awareness of the role of tobacco
retailers in causing tobacco related disease will help modify the postion
of the Cancer Council on retail tobacco industry sponsorship and
undermine retailers credibility when they oppose tobacco control legislation
such as removing tobacco displays from their stores.
The methods outlined below
can be used to estimate the deaths and costs of treatment for tobacco
related disease caused by individual retailers.
The Observations
I observed sales of cigarettes
at Coles Supermarkets in July and August 2004 after learning of their
relationship with Daffodil Day. I visited Coles Supermarkets in Newcastle
and observed sales at the cigarette counter. The cigarette counters
are at the front of the shop, people can walk up to it directly and
be served without entering the store. There are usually one or two cash
register aisles adjacent to the cigarette counter from which tobacco
can be purchased.
I only counted sales where
I saw the cigarette packs passed to the purchaser. I assumed all cigarette
packs were 20 packs for the purpose of calculation. This leads to underestimation
as most cigarette packs sold in Australia contain more than 20 cigarettes.
Most of the observations were conducted at a supermarket in an area
of relatively low smoking prevalence.
Table 1 below shows the time
of the observation periods, the number of cigarettes sold during the
observation period and the duration of each observation period, thereby
allowing a calcuation of an average hourly sale rate of 902 cigarettes
per hour. The hourly rates varied markedly, but the observations were
conducted on different days over several weeks, so many factors may
explain this variability.
| Table
1 |
|
|
|
| Observation
periods |
Number
of cigarettes sold |
Duration of observation (min.s) |
|
|
| 7.52
- 8.22 am |
60
|
30
|
|
| 9.50
- 10.20 am |
1080
|
30
|
|
| 12.32
- 1.02 pm |
960
|
30
|
|
| 1.37
-2.37 pm |
700
|
60
|
|
| 3.41
- 4.11 pm |
260
|
30
|
|
| 6
- 6.30 pm |
480
|
30
|
|
| 8.10-
8.40 pm |
320
|
30
|
|
| 9.11
- 9.41 pm |
200
|
30
|
|
| Total |
4060
|
270
|
=
4.5 hr.s |
|
|
|
|
The Calculations
| Measure |
Calculation |
Result |
| Average
hourly sales |
4060
cigarettes/4.5 hours |
902
cigarettes per hour |
| Total
estimated sale of cigarettes by Coles per year |
902
x 15 hrs sales per day x 360 days per year x 480 stores |
2337,984,000
cigarettes (2.3 billion) |
| Years
of life prematurely lost by Australians per year from 2.3 billion
cigarettes |
2.3
billion x 5.5 minutes per cigarette |
24,068
years |
| Number
of premature deaths per year expected from 2.3 billion cigarettes
|
24,000
years /average number of years life lost due to smoking (15 years) |
1,605
deaths |
| Direct
medical costs of treating illness from 2.3 billion cigarettes |
2.3
billion x 17.25 cents cigarette |
$396,750,000 |
The Assumptions and References
Underlying the Calculations
| Assumption |
Estimate |
Source
and comments |
|
Minutes
of life lost per cigarette smoked
|
5.5
minutes
|
|
|
Average
number of years of life lost due to smoking
|
15
years
|
From USA
Surgeon Generals Report, 2004. http://www.cdc.gov/tobacco/data_statistics/sgr/sgr_2004/00_pdfs/chapter7.pdf
Alternative estimates include 5 or 10 years, however, since
this figure is used to calculate deaths by dividing the number
years of potential life lost, the use of 15 years provides a
lower estimate of deaths than using 5 or 10 years and hence
this is a conservative estimate.
|
|
Direct
medical costs of treating illness
|
$3.45 per
pack of 20 cigarettes
or 17.25
cents per cigarette
|
MMWR
- Annual Smoking-Attributable Mortality, Years of Potential Life
Lost, and Economic Costs - United States, 1995-1999. April 12,
2002 / Vol. 51 / No. 14 http://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/preview/mmwrhtml/mm5114a2.htm
This cost estimate was originally in $US, however, despite the
difference in the Australian dollar value, the estimate was not
increased as it is generally accepted that Australian health care
costs are lower than USA costs.
|
Alternative estimation
methods
When I first calculated the
deaths associated with the number of cigarettes estimated to be sold
by Coles Supermarkets they seemed unbelievably high - not least because
1605 deaths is almost 10% of all the deaths currently attributed to
tobacco related disease in Australia. But there is another way of calculating
the impact of cigarette sales which produces a similar result.
| Measures |
Estimates |
Sources |
| Number
of cigarettes sold in Australia annually |
25
billion |
VicHealth
Centre for Tobacco Control, Market information report. www.vctc.org.au/industry/market_information.pdf |
| Share
of Australian tobacco market held by supermarkets |
50% |
VicHealth
Centre for Tobacco Control, Market information report. www.vctc.org.au/industry/market_information.pdf |
| Woolworths
and Coles Myer share of national grocery market |
70% |
"Supermarket
giants Woolworths and Coles Myer already have a hefty 70% share
of the national grocery market and the ACCC is closely monitoring
any moves by the big two to snap up Franklins" stores. http://www.bandt.com.au/news/91/0c003091.asp |
| Woolworths,
Coles and Franklins (Big 3) share of national grocery market |
80% |
"Most
submissions, including that of the Australian Competition and Consumer
Commission (ACCC), quote the 80.4% figure. The AC Nielson figures
are endorsed by industry journal, Retail World." http://www.regional.org.au/articles/agriculture/beef/bin_retail1.htm |
Based on the above information,
if it is assumed that 50% of the tobacco market is held by supermarkets,
and Coles holds 30% of the national grocery market then we can estimate
that Coles holds (50% of 30%) 15% of Australian tobacco sales. 15% of
25 billion cigarettes equals 3.75 billion cigarettes which suggests
that the estimate above of 2.3 billion cigarette sales by Coles per
year is not likely to be an overestimate. Additonally, if we assume
15% of all Australian tobacco sales on average for Coles, we might expect
15% of the annual death toll due to tobacco to be assocciated with these
sales. 15% of 19,000 deaths equals 2,850 deaths. Again suggesting that
the estimate of 1605 deaths is not an overestimate.
What now?
- Join in the discussion.
- Email me at email@retailtobacco.net
if you are interested in assisting in further retail tobacco related
projects - including monitoring of sales and advocacy work.
- Monitor the ASH website
at http://www.ashaust.org.au/ for more informaton on lobbying and
advocacy.
- Support greater control
of retail tobacco sales by writing a letter to the editor of your
newspaper or calling your MP.
Media coverage
The following media coverage followed the publication in the SMH in
2004
Today Show TV Interview Channel 9(warning
5 meg file!)
 
ABC 2NC Radio Interview
2 meg MP3 file
Letters to the Editor at SMH
Put the ciggies behind the chemist's counter
Hooray for Dr Craig Dalton's proposal for all supermarkets to stop
selling cigarettes ("Daffodils or ciggies, take your pick",
Herald,
August 17).
Now let's go the next step and sell cigarettes only through chemists
-
with a prescription.
Smokers would be required to visit doctors or specialist clinics every
three months to obtain their nicotine prescriptions. Their health would
be monitored and there would be help always available for quitting.
Children and new smokers would suddenly find it quite hard to obtain
cigarettes and maybe in a generation or so nicotine might all but
disappear from our community. While tax revenue may dry up with falling
cigarette sales, there would be greater savings in health care given
to
those with chronic smoking-related diseases.
Martin Dearnley, Hornsby Heights, August 17.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Craig Dalton is right to highlight the influence that the retail market
has on the tobacco epidemic in Australia. If the number of retail
outlets were less accessible, and their product less visible, smoking
rates would fall and ex-smokers would buy other things. But many
retailers are addicted to the revenue that tobacco brings.
Should Coles should be singled out? In tobacco market penetration,
Coles is less dominant than it is in foods.
Is it reasonable to target Coles because it is big? If it was breaching
its duties over sales to minors, certainly. But is it reasonable to
compare Coles with McDonald's, whose product and identity are
indistinguishable?
The Cancer Council's work, not only in fundraising, but also in service
delivery, depends on engaging the community. As tobacco use is so
widespread, we would be left with few groups to engage with. We would
never hold a conference in a hotel as they are not smoke-free, we
wouldn't let the local RSL club sponsor a cancer support group, we would
not let smokers be volunteers at the Cancer Council, and we would never
place a fundraising box on the counter of 20,000 retailers in NSW.
Let's reform the tobacco retail sector. Pubs and clubs will not go
smoke-free without government action, neither will retailers wean
themselves. Tobacco retailer licensing and placing the product out of
sight is where we should start.
Dr Andrew Penman, CEO, The Cancer Council NSW, Woolloomooloo, August
17.
other link
|
Site maintained by
Dr Craig Dalton, Public Health Physician and Conjoint Senior Lecturer, School
of Medical Practice and Population Health, The University of Newcastle, NSW,
Australia. Contact: email@retailtobacco.net
This site provides a guide to the
estimation of human cost of retail tobacco sales and background information
on which my article "Daffodils
or ciggies, take your pick" published in the Sydney Morning Herald
on August 17, 2004 was based. (click here for media generated
by article)
Check the latest publication in the
Sydney Morning Herald August 23rd 2007 here.
New
$500 Youtube challenge
- New
$500 prize to the most popular (i.e.
most viewed) video uploaded to Youtube in the month leading up to Daffodil Day
2008 that highlights the challenge of big tobacco retailers positioning themselves
as cancer prevention fundraisers.
Want a reminder about the YouTube
challenge next year? Or want to be involved in retailtobacco issues? Join the
email list
What this site is about
While tobacco manufacturers are considered
corporate pariahs, big tobacco retailers seem to operate behind a smokescreen
of respectability. This smokescreen is so effective that the Cancer
Council can partner with Coles Supermarkets
which will sell over a million cigarettes on Daffodil
Day - a cancer charity fundraising event that has special meaning and brings
hope to cancer sufferers and their families. Understanding the human cost of
tobacco sales by individual retailers can help government, charities, the community,
and even tobacco retailers to recognise the impact of these sales. Hopefully,
greater awareness of the role of tobacco retailers in causing tobacco related
disease will help modify the postion
of the Cancer Council on retail tobacco industry sponsorship and undermine
retailers credibility when they oppose tobacco control legislation such as removing
tobacco displays from their stores.
The methods outlined below can be
used to estimate the deaths and costs of treatment for tobacco related disease
caused by individual retailers.
The Observations
I observed sales of cigarettes at
Coles Supermarkets in July and August 2004 after learning of their relationship
with Daffodil Day. I visited Coles Supermarkets in Newcastle and observed sales
at the cigarette counter. The cigarette counters are at the front of the shop,
people can walk up to it directly and be served without entering the store.
There are usually one or two cash register aisles adjacent to the cigarette
counter from which tobacco can be purchased.
I only counted sales where I saw
the cigarette packs passed to the purchaser. I assumed all cigarette packs were
20 packs for the purpose of calculation. This leads to underestimation as most
cigarette packs sold in Australia contain more than 20 cigarettes. Most of the
observations were conducted at a supermarket in an area of relatively low smoking
prevalence.
Table 1 below shows the time of the
observation periods, the number of cigarettes sold during the observation period
and the duration of each observation period, thereby allowing a calcuation of
an average hourly sale rate of 902 cigarettes per hour. The hourly rates varied
markedly, but the observations were conducted on different days over several
weeks, so many factors may explain this variability.
| Table
1 |
|
|
|
| Observation
periods |
Number
of cigarettes sold |
Duration of observation (min.s) |
|
|
| 7.52
- 8.22 am |
60
|
30
|
|
| 9.50
- 10.20 am |
1080
|
30
|
|
| 12.32
- 1.02 pm |
960
|
30
|
|
| 1.37
-2.37 pm |
700
|
60
|
|
| 3.41
- 4.11 pm |
260
|
30
|
|
| 6
- 6.30 pm |
480
|
30
|
|
| 8.10-
8.40 pm |
320
|
30
|
|
| 9.11
- 9.41 pm |
200
|
30
|
|
| Total |
4060
|
270
|
= 4.5
hr.s |
|
|
|
|
The Calculations
| Measure |
Calculation |
Result |
| Average
hourly sales |
4060 cigarettes/4.5
hours |
902 cigarettes
per hour |
| Total estimated
sale of cigarettes by Coles per year |
902 x 15
hrs sales per day x 360 days per year x 480 stores |
2337,984,000
cigarettes (2.3 billion) |
| Years of
life prematurely lost by Australians per year from 2.3 billion cigarettes
|
2.3 billion
x 5.5 minutes per cigarette |
24,068
years |
| Number
of premature deaths per year expected from 2.3 billion cigarettes |
24,000
years /average number of years life lost due to smoking (15 years) |
1,605 deaths |
| Direct
medical costs of treating illness from 2.3 billion cigarettes |
2.3 billion
x 17.25 cents cigarette |
$396,750,000 |
The Assumptions and References
Underlying the Calculations
| Assumption |
Estimate |
Source
and comments |
|
Minutes
of life lost per cigarette smoked
|
5.5
minutes
|
|
|
Average
number of years of life lost due to smoking
|
15
years
|
From USA Surgeon
Generals Report, 2004. http://www.cdc.gov/tobacco/data_statistics/sgr/sgr_2004/00_pdfs/chapter7.pdf
Alternative estimates include 5 or 10 years, however, since this figure
is used to calculate deaths by dividing the number years of potential
life lost, the use of 15 years provides a lower estimate of deaths than
using 5 or 10 years and hence this is a conservative estimate.
|
|
Direct
medical costs of treating illness
|
$3.45 per pack of
20 cigarettes
or 17.25 cents
per cigarette
|
MMWR
- Annual Smoking-Attributable Mortality, Years of Potential Life Lost,
and Economic Costs - United States, 1995-1999. April 12, 2002 / Vol. 51
/ No. 14 http://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/preview/mmwrhtml/mm5114a2.htm
This cost estimate was originally in $US, however, despite the difference
in the Australian dollar value, the estimate was not increased as it is
generally accepted that Australian health care costs are lower than USA
costs.
|
Alternative estimation methods
When I first calculated the deaths
associated with the number of cigarettes estimated to be sold by Coles Supermarkets
they seemed unbelievably high - not least because 1605 deaths is almost 10%
of all the deaths currently attributed to tobacco related disease in Australia.
But there is another way of calculating the impact of cigarette sales which
produces a similar result.
| Measures |
Estimates |
Sources |
| Number
of cigarettes sold in Australia annually |
25 billion |
VicHealth
Centre for Tobacco Control, Market information report. www.vctc.org.au/industry/market_information.pdf |
| Share of
Australian tobacco market held by supermarkets |
50% |
VicHealth
Centre for Tobacco Control, Market information report. www.vctc.org.au/industry/market_information.pdf |
| Woolworths
and Coles Myer share of national grocery market |
70% |
"Supermarket
giants Woolworths and Coles Myer already have a hefty 70% share of the national
grocery market and the ACCC is closely monitoring any moves by the big two
to snap up Franklins" stores. http://www.bandt.com.au/news/91/0c003091.asp |
| Woolworths,
Coles and Franklins (Big 3) share of national grocery market |
80% |
"Most
submissions, including that of the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission
(ACCC), quote the 80.4% figure. The AC Nielson figures are endorsed by industry
journal, Retail World." http://www.regional.org.au/articles/agriculture/beef/bin_retail1.htm |
Based on the above information, if
it is assumed that 50% of the tobacco market is held by supermarkets, and Coles
holds 30% of the national grocery market then we can estimate that Coles holds
(50% of 30%) 15% of Australian tobacco sales. 15% of 25 billion cigarettes equals
3.75 billion cigarettes which suggests that the estimate above of 2.3 billion
cigarette sales by Coles per year is not likely to be an overestimate. Additonally,
if we assume 15% of all Australian tobacco sales on average for Coles, we might
expect 15% of the annual death toll due to tobacco to be assocciated with these
sales. 15% of 19,000 deaths equals 2,850 deaths. Again suggesting that the estimate
of 1605 deaths is not an overestimate.
What now?
- Join in the discussion.
- Email me at email@retailtobacco.net
if you are interested in assisting in further retail tobacco related projects
- including monitoring of sales and advocacy work.
- Monitor the ASH website at http://www.ashaust.org.au/
for more informaton on lobbying and advocacy.
- Support greater control of retail
tobacco sales by writing a letter to the editor of your newspaper or calling
your MP.
Media coverage
The following media coverage followed the publication in the SMH in 2004
Today Show TV Interview Channel 9(warning
5 meg file!)
ABC 2NC Radio Interview
2 meg MP3 file
Letters to the Editor at SMH
Put the ciggies behind the chemist's counter
Hooray for Dr Craig Dalton's proposal for all supermarkets to stop
selling cigarettes ("Daffodils or ciggies, take your pick", Herald,
August 17).
Now let's go the next step and sell cigarettes only through chemists -
with a prescription.
Smokers would be required to visit doctors or specialist clinics every
three months to obtain their nicotine prescriptions. Their health would
be monitored and there would be help always available for quitting.
Children and new smokers would suddenly find it quite hard to obtain
cigarettes and maybe in a generation or so nicotine might all but
disappear from our community. While tax revenue may dry up with falling
cigarette sales, there would be greater savings in health care given to
those with chronic smoking-related diseases.
Martin Dearnley, Hornsby Heights, August 17.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Craig Dalton is right to highlight the influence that the retail market
has on the tobacco epidemic in Australia. If the number of retail
outlets were less accessible, and their product less visible, smoking
rates would fall and ex-smokers would buy other things. But many
retailers are addicted to the revenue that tobacco brings.
Should Coles should be singled out? In tobacco market penetration,
Coles is less dominant than it is in foods.
Is it reasonable to target Coles because it is big? If it was breaching
its duties over sales to minors, certainly. But is it reasonable to
compare Coles with McDonald's, whose product and identity are
indistinguishable?
The Cancer Council's work, not only in fundraising, but also in service
delivery, depends on engaging the community. As tobacco use is so
widespread, we would be left with few groups to engage with. We would
never hold a conference in a hotel as they are not smoke-free, we
wouldn't let the local RSL club sponsor a cancer support group, we would
not let smokers be volunteers at the Cancer Council, and we would never
place a fundraising box on the counter of 20,000 retailers in NSW.
Let's reform the tobacco retail sector. Pubs and clubs will not go
smoke-free without government action, neither will retailers wean
themselves. Tobacco retailer licensing and placing the product out of
sight is where we should start.
Dr Andrew Penman, CEO, The Cancer Council NSW, Woolloomooloo, August
17.
other link
